Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Oversold plus Alcoa's earnings

I think that we may look back at today as being the time to get in if you missed it.The market is oversold and Alcoa kicked off the earnings season with a better than expected earnings report to hopefully set the tone for a good earnings season.Stocks that are over done to the downside that I believe will rocket here shortly are as follows

1.FLS Flowserve closed today at 62.37 A great play on global infrastructure (Stimulus money)
2.BGC General cable. closed today at 33.24 Biggest player in industrial wire...(Commodity prices low) Another infra play ..National electrical grid will need wire.
3.BAC Bank of America closed today at 11.84 Are flush with cash now so they don't have to worry as much about the bad paper they are sitting on ...It buys them time to wait and sit on it until the housing market stabalizes or start to appreciate.Remember the gains they reported last quarter....I think they report good numbers this quarter.

Friday, July 3, 2009

List your top 5 stock holdings

At the moment I like these 5

1.Quanta Services (PWR) 21.74
2.Illinois tool works (ITW) 36.22
3.Bank of America (BAC) 12.64
4.Flowserve (FLS) 67.54
5.Whirlpool (WHR) 43.52


If anyone actually reads this I do have reasons for liking them and If anyone wants to talk about them let me know.

Trade deficit between the US and China

Trying to figure out this stock market is very hard to do with so many different views out there to try to sift through and come up with your own view. If I had to list 5 major issues facing the US economy over the next few years I would have to these 5 (which I don't have in my head yet but will by the end of this blog) things need to be addressed...

1.Trade deficit with China is not sustainable and the US needs to get its manufacturing base back which would create jobs here in the US and we need to consciously try to buy American whenever possible.
2.The Great Unwinding of credit: the consumer is hurting bad.I am glad that the savings rates have gone up as I feel that people are unwinding there debt but it's going to be a long haul as it has been years of an economy built on credit....now that the credit is gone its going to be a while before we recover.
3.Unemployment: When you add this into the picture it just makes it that much harder to unwind the debt of America's middle class.
4.Healthcare: I believe that a huge percentage of bankruptsies (around 60%) are due to medical bills and a huge percentage of these people had a policy but was not enough to stop the financial ruin.We need major reform in this area as the current system is unsustainable.
5.Political : We need campaign finance reform...the current system of a congress controlled by the Wealthy lobbying efforts of big corporations cannot be let to continue on like this....they corrupt politicians who end up supporting things that are not in our best interest but in the interest of campaign contributions and efforts to help them get re-elected.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Quick fundementals on Northrop Grumman

Northrop Grumman( NOC) Is only trading at 8 times next years estimates with forcasted 13% growth and a 3.7% Yield to boot.It also trades at only 1.28 times its book value which should provide close to a bottom in the stock.Very limited downside risk in my opinion.

Compares

LMT trades at 11 times book with 2.8% yield
RTN trades at 1.97 times book with 2.7% yield and only 6% growth forecast.